The dramatic decrease in the Stockton area's population growth may be some of
the best news possible for our cities.
Census Bureau figures released last week show that from 2000 to 2007, Stockton's population grew roughly 17 percent, to 287,245. That makes Stockton the 62nd-largest U.S. city.
But much more interesting, perhaps, is that population growth slowed considerably starting in 2005, coinciding with the start of the real estate market meltdown. The collapse of the overheated housing market throughout California, but especially in San Joaquin County, with its proximity to the Bay Area, means this area has grown increasingly less attractive to Bay Area residents looking to escape stratospheric housing prices.
The explosive growth of housing in the first half of the decade was a magnet drawing outsiders to our county. Spanos Park, straddling Interstate 5 in north Stockton, is but one example of the rapid buildup of development that was going on here.
Such growth presented opportunities, of course. Those in a position to take advantage of the red-hot market - developers, real estate agents, homeowners looking to cash out their equity and move elsewhere, among others - often did well.
But there's such a thing as too much of a good thing, and the foreclosure mess - spawned by the rapidly expanding housing market - had an ugly downside. Page after page after page of trustee sale legal advertising in this paper and others is clear evidence of how out of control things got.
A slowdown in population growth gives us time to take a deep breath and think about where we want our cities and county to go next. To plan. To analyze. To prepare.
That such preparation is needed was amply demonstrated when Stockton caught utterly off guard as the Park West Place shopping center seemed suddenly to spring from the ground at I-5 and Eight Mile Road. The traffic congestion there because of inadequate planning was a nightmare for months.
It's imperative that our leaders use this slow-growth period to get ready for what's coming next. And it's coming. Recent news reports about Bay Area and Modesto investment groups buying north Stockton property in preparation for the next housing building wave should be ample warning the population surge is not over.
Census Bureau projections put Stockton's population at more than 330,000 by 2015, more than 365,000 by 2020 and more than 400,000 by 2025.
That's tomorrow, and today is when we have to start getting ready for it.